Tuesday, November 30,
2004
Ah, the day when Ken’s winning streak came to an end. Let’s
meet our contestant.
v David
Hankins, a college student from Minneapolis, Minnesota
v Nancy
Zerg, a realtor from Ventura, California
v Ken
Jennings, a software engineer from Salt Lake City, Utah (whose 74-day cash
winnings total $2,520,700)
Jeopardy!
round review:
The categories were:
|
NO SOUP
FOR YOU!
|
FESTIVUS
|
THE CONTEST
|
YADA YADA YADA
|
A CATEGORY ABOUT
NOTHING
|
SEINFELD
|
At the beginning, the two new players were dominating the
game. A wrong answer was given by David Hankins on a question about soup for
$1,000, which was rebound by Nancy.
What a very expensive soup.
Then we enter the category called ‘FESTIVUS’ (it’s about
festival). Ken swept the category for $3,000 then move on to rather political
category called ‘THE CONTEST’. Ken then hit the Daily Double.
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
David
Hankins
|
|
$4,600
|
$3,200
|
$1,000
|
As we know, Ken Jennings always played his Daily Double
aggressively, he decided to bet $3,000.
Not enough! Considering his skill (63% buzz rate and 94%
correct answer), he should go on and bet $4,600 or True Daily Double.
Furthermore, we’re just halfway through the board. If he flunks, he will be
able to catch up easily.
Anyway, here’s the clue:
Clue: 1984 Walter Mondale got his 13 electoral votes by winning D.C.
& this state
Ken: What is Minnesota?
Alex: Right. His home state, you’re correct.
Jeopardy! Result:
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
David
Hankins
|
|
$10,600
|
$4,800
|
$400
|
Prediction of Double Jeopardy!:
|
INTO DOUBLE JEOPARDY!
|
|||
|
Buzz Rate
|
0,63
|
0,19
|
0,28
|
|
Precision Rate
|
0,94
|
1
|
0,71
|
|
|
Ken
|
Nancy
|
David
|
|
Jeopardy!
|
10600
|
4800
|
400
|
|
Predicted DJ!
|
12710
|
9803
|
7074
|
|
Predicted Total
|
23310
|
14603
|
7478
|
|
Probability Win
|
86.97%
|
11.49%
|
1.54%
|
|
Nancy's score 62% of
Ken's score
|
|||
Ken’s score was higher than Nancy’s score; however we
project that Nancy will catch-up and raises to $14,000. Ken will not able to
lock the game with the predicted $23,300.Why? Ken was very dominating the board! The reason was
obvious. Despite very passive, Nancy always buzz-in with the right answer.
Double
Jeopardy! Round review:
RELEASE THE LION! The categories were:
|
ZOOLOGY
|
PRO SPORT VENUE
|
FUNNY HATS
|
PATTON PENDING
|
GRAB BAG
|
SLANG
|
They went for “SLANG” (obviously the easiest), jumped around
“GRAB BAG” & “ZOOLOGY” before Ken hitting the first Daily Double (on clue
15, kinda late) at PATTON PENDING.
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
David
Hankins
|
|
$14,600
|
$8,400
|
$1,200
|
Lock is at $16,800. He only needs $2,200 to reach $16,800,
but instead he betted $5,400 (*audience murmurs*). A Clavin Daily Double? (Overkill?) Actually, it’s not overkill. $5,400 is appropriate. It seems that Ken wanted ‘to guarantee his
winning’ at the first Daily Double (a practice that I personally approved, as
long as you don’t drop to 2nd place). If he bet only $2,200 and
Nancy starts catching up quickly, the next Daily Double will cost more if Ken
wants a runaway. Also, Ken had $6,200 cushion. Why don’t use it?
Here’s a more ‘scientific data’ to show why $5,400 is
correct.
|
INTO FIRST DAILY DOUBLE
|
|||
|
Buzz Rate
|
0,63
|
0,19
|
0,22
|
|
Precision Rate
|
0,93
|
0,8
|
0,66
|
|
|
Ken
|
Nancy
|
David
|
|
Into first DD
|
14600
|
8400
|
1200
|
|
Predicted remaining
|
9043
|
6402
|
4946
|
|
Predicted Total
|
23643
|
14802
|
6146
|
|
Probability Win
|
94,96%
|
4,78%
|
0,26%
|
|
Nancy's score is 62% of
Ken's score
|
|||
The ‘Predicted remaining’ is gained from Monte Carlo, (what
is computer simulation?) We predicted Nancy final earning will be $14,800. A
lock game will be at $29,600. We predict that Ken will have around $23,600
after the final clue is cleaned up. That means Ken is $6,000 short. That’s why
$5,400 is appropriate. He was trying to lock the game early when he has a
chance to do it without risking going down to second place due to wrong answer.
Anyway, here’s the clue:
Clue On December 26, 1944 Patton's forces relieved this town in
Belgium's Ardennes; the Germans were driven out in January
Ken: What is...
Alex: Hurry.
Ken: Verdun?
Alex: No, what is Bastogne? Remember, Bastogne was encircled
by the German forces, and Brigadier General McAuliffe said "Nuts!" in
response to the surrender attempt.
|
AFTER FIRST DAILY DOUBLE
|
|||
|
Buzz Rate
|
0,63
|
0,19
|
0,22
|
|
Precision Rate
|
0,93
|
0,8
|
0,66
|
|
|
Ken
|
Nancy
|
David
|
|
Into first DD
|
9200
|
8400
|
1200
|
|
Predicted remaining
|
9043
|
6402
|
4946
|
|
Predicted Total
|
18243
|
14802
|
6146
|
|
Probability Win
|
76,64%
|
31,01%
|
2,16%
|
|
Nancy's score is 80% of
Ken's score
|
|||
Ken Jennings then went into ‘serious mode’ and made 5
consecutive correct answers before reached another Daily Double at “FUNNY
HATS”.
 |
| That streak! |
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
David
Hankins
|
|
$15,200
|
$8,400
|
- $800
|
Ooh. His streak made him at a better position now. Lock at
$16,400, which is $1,200 away, but he decided to bet $4,800.
|
INTO SECOND DAILY DOUBLE
|
||||
|
Buzz Rate
|
0,64
|
0,2
|
0,22
|
|
|
Precision Rate
|
0,93
|
0,8
|
0,6
|
|
|
|
Ken
|
Nancy
|
David
|
|
|
Into second DD
|
15200
|
8400
|
-800
|
|
|
Predicted remaining
|
5246
|
2899
|
2502
|
|
|
Predicted Total
|
20446
|
11299
|
1702
|
|
|
Probability Win
|
97,96%
|
2,04%
|
0%
|
|
|
Nancy's score is 55% of
Ken's score. $11,600 left on board
|
||||
We predict Nancy’s final score will be $11,300. Ken final’s
score will be $20,500. Lock game is at $22,600 so he only needs $2,100. $4,800
is a Clavin Daily Double. There is no excuse for this one because it’s way too
far.
And he got punished.
Clue :The name of this often brimless hat, popular in the 1920s, is
French for "bell", after the shape of the hat
Ken: What is a campan?
Alex: No. Women would know this--what is a cloche?
Double
Jeopardy! Result:
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
David
Hankins
|
|
$14,400
|
$10,000
|
- $2,200
|
Poor Ken. He had hard time trying to get higher than the
black line. Also poor David, he got bad drawing. But he also had some
mistake of his own; he missed two clues both worth $2,000. If he didn’t make
the mistake, he will be at $1,800 (and lose with at least some dignity. -$2,200
is harsh, even though your opponent is Ken Jennings. )
Final
Jeopardy! REVIEW:
|
BUSINESS & INDUSTRY
|
That’s the category for today Final Jeopardy!Let’s analyze possible strategy.
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
|
$14,400
|
$10,000
|
Unfortunately, thefinalwager.co does not provide analyze for
this episode. I will have to do it myself. I flunked game theory at Coursera,
so bear with me if I’m wrong.
FIRST ORDER.
If Nancy Zerg doubled up (bets everything). Nancy Zerg will
be at $20,000. Ken Jennings need $5,600 to tie her.
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
||
|
$14,400
|
$10,000
|
||
|
MIN
|
MAX
|
MIN
|
MAX
|
|
|
$ 5,600
|
|
|
If Ken answered incorrectly and bets $5,600, he will drop to
$8,800. That’s $10,000 - $1,200. So Nancy Zerg can bet up to $1,200.
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
||
|
$14,400
|
$10,000
|
||
|
MIN
|
MAX
|
MIN
|
MAX
|
|
|
$ 5,600
|
|
$1,200
|
SECOND ORDER.
So Ken noticed that Nancy max bet is $1,200. That will raise
her to $11,200 for correct answer. $14,400 - $3,200 = $11,200. So Ken maximum
bet is $3,200 on second order.
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
||
|
$14,400
|
$10,000
|
||
|
MIN
|
MAX
|
MIN
|
MAX
|
|
|
$ 5,600
|
|
$1,200
|
|
|
$ 3,200
|
|
|
If Ken answer correctly and bets $3,200, he will go up to
$17,600. That’s $7,600. However, if Ken answer incorrectly and bets $3,200, he
will down to $10,800. That’s $800. Nancy should bet around $800 to $7,600.
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
||
|
$14,400
|
$10,000
|
||
|
MIN
|
MAX
|
MIN
|
MAX
|
|
|
$ 5,600
|
|
$1,200
|
|
|
$ 3,200
|
$800
|
$7,600
|
Zero Bet
If Ken bets $0, Nancy needs to bet at least $4,400 to tie
Ken. If Nancy bets $0, Ken shouldn’t bet more than $4,400 so he doesn’t drop to
$4,400.
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
||
|
$14,400
|
$10,000
|
||
|
MIN
|
MAX
|
MIN
|
MAX
|
|
|
$ 5,600
|
|
$1,200
|
|
|
$ 3,200
|
$ 800
|
$7,600
|
|
|
$ 4,400
|
$ 4,400
|
|
Adjust the number by $1 here and there.
FINAL STRATEGY
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
|
$14,400
|
$10,000
|
|
$0
~ $5,601
|
$4,401
~ $7,601
|
This is pretty much optimal strategy. The only way Nancy
Zerg can win, if she answered correctly and Ken answer incorrectly. Anything
else and Ken will be 75 times champion. And the clue was this:
|
BUSINESS & INDUSTRY
|
|
Most of this firm's 70,000 seasonal
white-collar employees work only 4 months a year
|
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
|
$14,400
|
$10,000
|
|
What is Fed Ex?
|
What
is H & R Block?
|
|
$5,601
|
$4,401
|
|
$8,799
|
$14,401
|
Can Ken Jennings will be able to do better?
Unfortunately, yes. Our calculation will tells us that he
will be able to survive to play the next game.He made two crucial mistakes
1.
The Jeopardy! Daily Double. (Not making it True
Daily Double.)
2.
The 2nd Double Jeopardy! Daily Double
(This one is lethal.)
Let’s visit the first round.
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
David
Hankins
|
|
$4,600
|
$3,200
|
$1,000
|
Had Ken made it True, he will receive another $4,600 instead
of $3,000, an extra $1,600. With extra $1,600, he will face the first Daily
Double with this amount.
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
David
Hankins
|
|
$16,200
|
$8,400
|
$1,200
|
|
INTO FIRST DAILY DOUBLE
|
|||
|
Buzz Rate
|
0,63
|
0,19
|
0,22
|
|
Precision Rate
|
0,93
|
0,8
|
0,66
|
|
|
Ken
|
Nancy
|
David
|
|
Into first DD
|
16200
|
8400
|
1200
|
|
Predicted remaining
|
9043
|
6402
|
4946
|
|
Predicted Total
|
25243
|
14802
|
6146
|
|
Nancy's score is 58% of
Ken's score
|
|||
Nancy is projected to have $14,800. Ken will be around
$25,000. Lock is at $29,600. That’s $4,600. Should he bet the maximum $4,600
instead of $5,400, he will save another $800. Move to the next one.
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
David
Hankins
|
|
$17,600
|
$8,400
|
- $800
|
Ken is already at lock game at this point.
|
INTO SECOND DAILY DOUBLE
|
||||
|
Buzz Rate
|
0,64
|
0,2
|
0,22
|
|
|
Precision Rate
|
0,93
|
0,8
|
0,6
|
|
|
|
Ken
|
Nancy
|
David
|
|
|
Into second DD
|
17600
|
8400
|
-800
|
|
|
Predicted remaining
|
5246
|
2899
|
2502
|
|
|
Predicted Total
|
22846
|
11299
|
1702
|
|
|
Nancy's score is 49% of
Ken's score. $11,600 left on board
|
||||
Nancy is at $11,300. Ken is at $22,800. Lock is available at
$22,600. He only need to finishes it with $5 and;
|
Ken
Jennings
|
Nancy
Zerg
|
David
Hankins
|
|
$21,595
|
$10,000
|
- $2,200
|
Ken survived for another day.
My opinion
Now you see how Daily Double and Final Jeopardy! can make or
break a player. But there’s always one thing that bugs me in this game. It’s
Trebek’s quote.
|
“You are
indeed a giant killer!”
-Alex Trebek to Nancy Zerg
|
Is she a giant killer or just a by-stander that happens to
be standing near to the giant who’s committing Hara-Kiri? After I made this article, I think she is a giant killer. If
you look at the graph, you can see Ken desperately trying to get above the
black line (Nancy doubled score, the lock point).
Unlike other Ken’s
competitor, Nancy actually made a fight. So many players only stuck with around
$6,000. She actually made it to 5 digits, and it’s not just anybody who is her
opponent, it’s Ken! According to the notorious “Art of War”, they’re two ways of
destroying your enemy, they are direct or indirect. She definitely picked the
second one.
Of course there is some luck involved, but luck is only a quarter
of them. You will also need speed, brain, and game theory.
FINAL
JEOPARDY! Clue of the article:
|
BABY NAME
|
|
Of the Social
Security Administration's top 10 boys' names in 2000, the 2, ending in the
same letter, on a list of the 12 Apostles
|
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