Clavin's Rule:

Clavin's Rule

n. a wagering "rule of thumb" that suggests a player not put a lock game at risk with an excessive wager, however tempting the category.

Monday, June 22, 2015

Game Review: Wednesday, June 17, 2015: Tom Landvatter v Kevin Ruby v Brennan Bushee

                I’d like to give spoiler. This one is a very tight match.

                ENTER PLAYER INTRODUCTION!

  • ·         Tom Landvatter, a professor from Valparaiso, Indiana
  • ·         Kevin Ruby, a technical writer from San Diego, California
  • ·         Brennan Bushee, an operations analyst from Malden, Massachusetts (whose 2-days cash winnings total $57,202)


               Given the fact Brennan win rate is $ 27,500 every episode, if Brennan wins this one, Brennan is definitely going to be in the TOC leader board. Whether Brennan will stay until the period is over is another question.
Jeopardy! round review:
GRISHAM, CRICHTON OR CLANCY
GOVERNMENT
AGENCIES
FOOTBALL
HEROES
THE 11th CENTURY
TOO MUCH INFORMATION
“TMI”

                Unlike previous episode where how they pick the clue is literally the chaos theory itself, this time how they pick the category is more –well – gentle.

                We have an interesting Daily Double! A late Daily Double with big lead, a huge one.
Brennan
Bushee
Kevin
Ruby
Tom
Landvatter
$5,800
$1,600
$2,000

                After this Daily Double, the only remaining category is “TOO MUCH INFORMATION”. $ 3,000 left on the table. Brennan wagered $ 3,000 , big, but not big enough by this blog’s standard. Remember that in Jeopardy! round, the blog promotes ‘$5 or True Daily Double’ attitude in Jeopardy! Round. If you get it wrong, well you can still rebuild your bank on Double Jeopardy! If you get it right, you can guarantee your win early.

Clue: The address atf.gov would be atfe.gov if it accounted for this word found in the full name of the bureau
                Raf: What is explosive?
                That’s a correct answer.
Jeopardy! round result:
Brennan
Bushee
Kevin
Ruby
Tom
Landvatter
$8,200
$1,600
$1,600

                Maybe not so tight.
INTO DOUBLE JEOPARDY!
Buzz Rate
0,44
0,27
0,28
Precision Rate
0,93
0,83
1
Brennan
Kevin
Tom
Jeopardy!
$  8.200
$ 1.600
$  1.600
Predicted DJ!
$ 13.582
$  10.521
$ 11.124
Predicted Total
$ 21.782
$  12.121
$  12.724
Probability Win
74,29%
11,97%
13,73%
Tom proj. score is 58% of Brennan's proj. score Probability doesn't sum to 100% up due to rounding
               
Double Jeopardy! round review:
                RELEASE THE BEAST
               
PUZZLERS
POP MUSIC ROYALTY
PULL INTO THE “BURG”
HISTORIANS
PODCASTS
BETTER CALL SAUL

                We started the game with “BETTER CALL SAUL” then the game continues for another 10 clues. Tom found the first Daily Double behind “PULLING INTO THE ‘BURG’” $ 1,600 clues.
.
Brennan
Bushee
Kevin
Ruby
Tom
Landvatter
$11,800
$6,000
$3,600

                He decided to make it True Daily Double. Is it a Clavin Daily Double? Overkill? Check out this table.
INTO FIRST DAILY DOUBLE
Buzz Rate
0,44
0,27
0,28
Precision Rate
0,9
0,88
1
Brennan
Kevin
Tom
Current Score
$  11.800
$    6.000
$    3.600
Predicted Remaining
$    9.122
$    7.267
$    7.560
Predicted Total
$  20.922
$  13.267
$  11.160
Probability Win
81,18%
12,15%
6,65%
Kevin proj. score is 65% of Brennan's proj. score Probability doesn't sum to 100% up due to rounding

                The ‘rule of thumb’ is when you’re third place. is that you should not wager in a way that makes your score below the elimination point at the end of Double Jeopardy! (Please check our explanation on what is elimination point.) We predicted Brennan final score is $ 20,900 and Kevin will be at $ 13,300. That’s $ 7,600. If Tom wagered everything and get it wrong, he will drop below the elimination point ($ 7,550). The correct attitude is to wager everything but $ 50. We will not throw the ‘Clavin’ flag here because $ 3,550 wager and $ 3,600 wager is close enough, but we’d like to tell you that going True Daily Double is wrong, he should go down a little bit.

Clue: A city in Pinellas County, Florida, or one about 7 degrees south of the Arctic Circle
                Tom: What is St. Petersburg?
                He got it right and doubled his money.

                It only took two clue to find another Daily Double. This time, Brennan Bushee got it behind “BETTER CALL SAUL” for $ 1,200
Brennan
Bushee
Kevin
Ruby
Tom
Landvatter
$12,600
$8,000
$7,200

                This time, Brennan wager $ 3,000. Last game, Brennan made a correct aggressive wager. Let gives it a review.
INTO SECOND DAILY DOUBLE
Buzz Rate
0,44
0,29
0,26
Precision Rate
0,9
0,9
1
Brennan
Kevin
Tom
Current Score
$  12.600
$  8.000
$ 7.200
Predicted Remaining
$   8.098
$  6.638
$  6.505
Predicted Total
$  20.698
$  14.638
$ 13.705
Probability Win
73,87%
14,76%
11,35%
Kevin proj. score is 70% of Brennan's proj. score Probability doesn't sum to 100% up due to rounding

                Brennan was already above Kevin’s score. When you’re first place, the rule of thumb is ‘never risk your first place’. Kevin’s score we projected will be $ 14,600, so lock point will be around $ 29,200. Brennan will have to wager around $ 9,000, but that’s Clavin. Brennan can try to mathematically eliminate Tom with $ 7,000 wager, but that still risk the first place. So Brennan maximum wager is around $ 6,000, but $ 3,000 wager is still acceptable.

Clue: Avoid the topic of these foes now associated with the unenlightened; his long struggle with them didn't end well for him
                Brennan: What is The Philistines?
AFTER SECOND DAILY DOUBLE
Buzz Rate
0,45
0,14
0,33
Precision Rate
0,94
1
0,88
Brennan
Kevin
Tom
Current Score
$ 15.600
$ 8.000
$  7.200
Predicted Remaining
$   8.098
$ 6.638
$  6.505
Predicted Total
$ 23.698
$ 14.638
$13.705
Probability Win
92,25%
4,09%
3,65%
Kevin proj. score is 61% of Chris's proj. score Probability doesn't sum to 100% up due to rounding

                Normally, I would skip directly to Final Jeopardy! But I want you to watch the end game.
                We had 3 clues left. PODCAST for $ 1,200, $ 1,600 and $ 2,000
Brennan
Bushee
Kevin
Ruby
Tom
Landvatter
$26,000
$8,000
$11,600

                Lock point is at $ 23,200. Brennan is currently at ‘lock’ situation.
                Brennan: PODCAST for $ 1,200
Clue: "How Did This Get Made?" wondered how the films "Leprechaun in the Hood", "Gigli" & this "2: Cruise Control" got made
                Tom: What is Speed?
                Alex: Right.
                Tom: $ 1,600.
Clue:  In 2015 Adnan Syed, subject of this podcast, was granted an appeal of his conviction of murdering an ex-girlfriend
                Tom: What is Serial?
                Alex: Right.
                Watch the score. It’s very exciting.
Brennan
Bushee
Kevin
Ruby
Tom
Landvatter
$26,000
$8,000
$13,200

                Suddenly Brennan is not at runaway. The last clue is for $ 2,000. If Tom gets it correct or Brennan gets it wrong, it’s not a runaway. If Tom gets it wrong and Brennan gets it right, its lock game.
                Tom: $ 2,000
Clue: Karl Pilkington debated the phrase "a stitch in time saves nine" to the amusement of Stephen merchant & this British comic
                Brennan: What is Ricky Gervais?
Double Jeopardy! round review:             
Brennan
Bushee
Kevin
Ruby
Tom
Landvatter
$28,000
$8,000
$13,200
                  
Final Jeopardy! Review:              
THE OSCARS
                Duh.
THE OSCARS
In her 30s, this Texan was up for Best Actress in 2002 & 2003; she won Best Supporting in 2004 in a Civil War drama

Brennan
Bushee
Kevin
Ruby
Tom
Landvatter
$28,000
$8,000
$13,200
Who is Reneé Zellweger?
Who is Renee Zellweger
Who Zellweger?
$0
$7,999
$13,200
$28,000
$15,999
$26,400


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