Game Review: Monday, June 8, 2015: Craig Moysey v Sally Wright v Chris Wonderly

So in last game review, we had Roger Craig. Today, we have Craig Moysey. Now that’s some coincidence.

                ENTER PLAYER INTRODUCTION!

• ·         Craig Moysey, a business specialist originally from Brockville, Ontario, Canada
• ·         Sally Wright, an antiques dealer from Los Angeles, California
• ·         Chris Wonderly, a visual information specialist originally from Kansas City, Missouri (whose 1-day cash winnings total $15,900)

Jeopardy! round review:

HEALTH-RELATED ORG.	THE CENTURY OF THE CRIMES	‘EA’ NON-SPORTS
HEAVY	METAL	SOFT ROCK

                We started off with “HEAVY”. It turns out that “HEAVY” is basically about homicide and suicide. What a category! Then we moved on to “THE CENTURY OF THE CRIMES” where you’re asked to identify on which century the event happened, full of criminal stuff.

                Late into the game, Sally found the first Daily Double on “HEALTH-RELATED ORGANIZATIONS” for $ 400. See, you should go to peaceful topic first. Give peace a chance!

Chris Wonderly	Sally Wright	Craig Moysey
$4,200	$2,200	$5,000

                She wagered $ 500. That’s a very doubtful wager. She should just go binary “$5 or $ 2,200”. The correct play is to go $ 2,200 (given she got the first one of the topic.)

Clue: It was named for coins sent to the White House during FDR's presidency for an annual fundraising drive

                Sally: What is the March of Dimes?

                That is correct.

Jeopardy! round result:

Chris Wonderly	Sally Wright	Craig Moysey
$7,000	$4,500	$5,000

INTO DOUBLE JEOPARDY!
Buzz Rate	0,43	0,18	0,33
Precision Rate	0,93	1	1
	Chris	Sally	Craig
Jeopardy!	$  7.000	$   4.500	$   5.000
Predicted DJ!	$ 13.757	$   9.751	$ 12.228
Predicted Total	$ 20.757	$ 14.251	$17.228
Probability Win	54,18%	15,80%	30,01%
Craig proj. score is 52% of Chris's proj. score Probability doesn't sum to 100% up due to rounding

                I’m seeing a tight game. Again, when I said the keyword ‘tight’, it’s probably going to be a runaway like previous game review, but given the Craig’s buzz rate, I’m confident with my call today.

Double Jeopardy! round review:

                RELEASE THE OX!

ONLY THE LONELY	AMERICAN QUOTE	THE STARS
COURT-LY LOVE	WORLD FACTS	CELEB FILL-IN

                Alex said “CELEB FILL-IN” is a new category, so let’s check it out. It works like the game show Chain Reaction.

                Sally: “CELEBRITY FILL-IN” for $ 400.

Clue: Aisha ______ ______ Como

                Craig: Who is Tyler Perry?

                You got the idea, Aisha Tyler, Tyler Perry and Perry Como. However, out of 5 clues, only 2 got answered, seems to be a tough category. After we cleaned the hard category, we move to World Facts. First Daily Double was found behind “WORLD FACTS” for $ 1,200 by Chris.

Chris Wonderly	Sally Wright	Craig Moysey
$8,200	$4,100	$4,200

                He wagered $ 2,000, it showed doubt (or just conservative). Let’s see what computer simulation said:

INTO FIRST DAILY DOUBLE
Buzz Rate	0,44	0,16	0,37
Precision Rate	0,93	1	0,91
	Chris	Sally	Craig
Current Score	$ 8.200	$ 4.100	$ 4.200
Predicted Remaining	$10.487	$ 7.150	$ 9.598
Predicted Total	$18.687	$11.250	$13.798
Probability Win	65,12%	11,27%	23,60%
Craig proj. score is 73% of Chris's proj. score Probability doesn't sum to 100% up due to rounding

                The computer argues that it’s very unlikely for lock game. Craig is at $ 13,800 so lock game is at $ 27,600. Even if he goes for True Daily Double, He’s going to stuck with only at $ 27,000, so $ 2,000 despite sub-optimal, is ‘OK” for this situation.

Clue: It makes sense that the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park is in this sea

                Chris: What is the Barrier Sea?

                Alex: No. What is the Coral Sea?

AFTER FIRST DAILY DOUBLE
Buzz Rate	0,44	0,16	0,37
Precision Rate	0,93	1	0,91
	Chris	Sally	Craig
Current Score	$ 6.200	$ 4.100	$ 4.200
Predicted Remaining	$10.487	$ 7.150	$ 9.598
Predicted Total	$16.687	$11.250	$13.798
Probability Win	54,42%	15,30%	30,27%
Craig proj. score is 82% of Chris's proj. score Probability doesn't sum to 100% up due to rounding

                After this, they cleaned up “WORLD HISTORY” and moved on to “THE STARS”. Again, Chris found the second Daily Double behind the $ 1,600 clue. We’re just at clue 14 and both Daily Doubles already found, this is actually quick.

Chris Wonderly	Sally Wright	Craig Moysey
$9,400	$6,100	$3,800

  

                He wagered $ 4,000.

                X[ $ 4,000 is not enough. If you add a few hundreds, it’ll be good. Here’s why.

INTO SECOND DAILY DOUBLE
Buzz Rate	0,45	0,14	0,33
Precision Rate	0,94	1	0,88
	Chris	Sally	Craig
Current Score	$  9.400	$ 6.100	$ 3.800
Predicted Remaining	$  7.853	$  5.176	$  6.673
Predicted Total	$ 17.253	$ 11.276	$10.473
Probability Win	74,93%	13,44%	11,62%
Sally proj. score is 63% of Chris's proj. score Probability doesn't sum to 100% up due to rounding

                We projected that Sally final’s score is $ 11,300. Chris will be around $ 17,300. The lock point will be $ 11,300 X 2 = $ 22,600. That’s $ 5,100 difference. If he added just $ 1,100, it may change the game. What’s more that if wagered $ 5,100 got it wrong, Chris will only drop to $ 12,100.

Clue: In 1862 Alvan Clark discovered that this bright star has a companion called "The Pup"

                Chris: What is Sirius?

                He got it right. With $ 13,400, he might or might not exceed the lock point.

Double Jeopardy! round review:             

Chris Wonderly	Sally Wright	Craig Moysey
$14,200	$9,700	$9,000

                Nah he failed. And also we have $ 2,000 clue left on the board due to time. I hate it when big clue left on the board. It’s like wrench on the prediction. On the bright side though, we have our self a tight game like I predicted. Finally!

                That’s a tight match, between Chris and lock point. At the end the lock point won the match, mostly due to Sally who suddenly won $ 4,000 at the last minute.

Final Jeopardy! Review:              

LITERARRY CHARACTHERS

                Stop teasing my incompetence in everything.

LITERARRY CHARACTHERS

This name made famous in a 17th century novel is derived from the Spanish for "sweet"

                The people at JBoard.tv complained that the clue is too hard. I for one also find this clue hard; but on another hand I must appraise the clue writer for making a double-step clue.  This is an intelligent double-step clue.

Chris Wonderly	Sally Wright	Craig Moysey
$14,200	$9,700	$9,000
Who is Dulcinea?	Who is Dulcinea?	What is Casanova?
$ 5,500	$ 9,600	$ 0
$ 19,700	$ 19,300	$ 9,000

                Chris became our 2-day champion with $ 35,600. He is $ 21,200 short with our 13^th place of ‘TOC Leaderboard’, Ryan Alley, so if Chris wants to be in TOC, he better play his A-game tomorrow.