Clavin's Rule:

Clavin's Rule

n. a wagering "rule of thumb" that suggests a player not put a lock game at risk with an excessive wager, however tempting the category.

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Jeopardy! Game Review: Monday, June 1, 2015: Victoria Machado v Randy Pike v Dan Feitel

Monday, June 1, 2004
                Before we enter this review, I need to confess something. I’m a boy, not gay, straight, but I must admit, that I got turned on by Dan Feitel –wait for it- Dan Feitel’s Final Jeopardy bet. Do I get turned on by Dan Feitel himself? Not my type. He seems like somebody from The Bachelor. But I admire his assholeness.

ENTER PLAYER INTRODUCTION!
  • -       A librarian assistant from California, Victoria Machado (who learned reciting ABCD backwards because scared of going to jail)
  • -       An army public affair chief from Kentucky, Randy Pike (who tried to touch the Pope. Yes, the Vatican Pope )
  • -       An attorney from New Jersey, Dan Feitel whose 4-Day winning is $ 99,999 (and loves wine blind tasting)

                This seems like a chaos.

Jeopardy! round review:
               The categories were:
FICTIONAL PLACES
DON’T HOUND ME!
THEY DIRECTED THEMSELVES
THE LAW OF THE LAND
“BREAK”-ING
ENTERING

                The game starts with Randy and Dan having ‘tug-of-war’ on the category ‘FICTIONAL PLACES’ continued by ‘THE LAW OF THE LAND’, but suddenly Victoria hopped in at $800 clue and find the Daily Double at the “THE LAW OF THE LAND” for $1,000.

Dan
Feitel
Randy
Pike
Victoria
Machado
$2,400
$1,600
$1,000

                She wagered $ 1,000, which is a wise decision.
Clue: Tennessee bars holding office if you take part in these,  Though Tenn.'s Andrew Jackson Took part in as many a 100
                Alex: Victoria? Anything?
                Victoria: No. Sorry.
                Alex: He took part at 100 duels.
                That will be tough, assuming you don’t know the answer. My first instinct was bank robberies.
                Unfortunately, there’s nothing exciting in Jeopardy! round. But there’s a lot in Double Jeopardy!

Jeopardy! Result:
Dan
Feitel
Randy
Pike
Victoria
Machado
$6,400
$3,600
$3,000



INTO DOUBLE JEOPARDY!
Buzz Rate
0,48
0,34
0,26
Precision Rate
0,9
0,88
1
Dan
Randy
Victoria
Jeopardy!
    $6.400
    $3.600
 $3.000
Predicted DJ!
 $11.344
    $9.411
    $8.688
Predicted Total
 $17.744
$13.011
 $11.688
Probability Win
61,45%
22,64%
15,91%
Randy's score is 73% of Dan's score

                We might have an interesting match here. Stratton’s dilemma fans will be delighted.
Double Jeopardy! Round review:
                
                 RELEASE THE COUGAR!
MOORE OR LES
4-LETTER SCIENCE
CANADIAN CITIES
CARTOON
HISTORIC MOTTO & SLOGAN
VOCABULARY

                Victoria picked $400 “HISTORIC MOTTO & SLOGAN”, only to be snatched by Randy. The $800 clue was picked again by Victoria and daily double at $1,200 with “HISTORIC MOTTO & SLOGAN”. That’s very quick.

Dan
Feitel
Randy
Pike
Victoria
Machado
$6,400
$4,000
$3,800

                She said that she was not confident with the topic, so she decided to wager only $1,000.
INTO FIRST DAILY DOUBLE
Buzz Rate
0,48
0,35
0,28
Precision Rate
0,9
0,9
1
Dan
Randy
Victoria
Current score
$    6.400
$    4.000
$    3.800
Predicted remaining
$  10.754
$    9.148
$    8.422
Predicted Total
$  17.154
$  13.148
$  12.222
Probability Win
55,76%
24,79%
19,45%
Randy's score is 76% of Dan's score

                The difference between Dan’s predicted winning ($ 17,100) and Randy’s ($ 13,100) is $ 4,000. She is in a position to commit True Daily Double (but if she answered incorrectly, she will be standing on thin ice.) However, she said she wasn’t confident, so $ 1,000 is ok.

CLUE: Huey Long adapted this slogan from a speech by William Jennings Bryan that goes on to say, "BUT NO ONE WEARS A CROWN"
                Victoria: "What is everyman is a king?"
                That is correct question, she went into 2nd place.

AFTER FIRST DAILY DOUBLE
Buzz Rate
0,48
0,35
0,28
Precision Rate
0,9
0,9
1
Dan
Randy
Victoria
Current score
$    6.400
$    4.000
$    4.800
Predicted remaining
$  10.754
$    9.148
$    8.422
Predicted Total
$  17.154
$  13.148
$  13.222
Probability Win
53,14%
23,29%
23,57%
Victoria's score is 77% of Dan's score

                I love Double Jeopardy! Put $ 1,000 into the mixture and the predict-o-meter changed by a total of ~ 7%.

                We keep moving, they get rid of the category one-by one, first historic motto, vocabulary, motto, science, the ‘Moore or Les’ (surprised that the daily double was not at that category), leaving us with “CANADIAN CITIES”. Randy who was with the control went into “Daily Double hunting” mode and picked $ 1,600. Nothing! But he was lucky that is was a Triple Stumper. He hit the $ 1,200 clue, KACHING! That’s the Daily Double.

Dan
Feitel
Randy
Pike
Victoria
Machado
$14,400
$5,600
$7,600

INTO SECOND DAILY DOUBLE
Buzz Rate
0,48
0,36
0,24
Precision Rate
0,91
0,87
0,91
Dan
Randy
Victoria
Current score
$ 14.400
$5.600
$  7.600
Predicted remaining
$ 1.195
$1.010
$     943
Predicted Total
$ 15.595
$ 6.610
$  8.543
Probability Win
100,00%
0,00%
0,00%
Victoria's score is 54% of Dan's score. $3,200 left on the board

                (If you’re wondering how my computer got 100%, please asked me in the comment section.) He wagered $ 5,400. Big one, but I disagree with it. We predict Dan’s score will be $ 15,600 and Victoria’s score will be $ 8,500. That’s $ 7,100 difference and also elimination point, which means that if at the end of Double Jeopardy! your final score is less than $ 7,100, you’re mathematically eliminated.

                So he’s score is less then why elimination point, why it’s bad idea to go big? The reason I started this blog is to calculate how many $$$ you can bet without risking getting below the elimination point. If he answered incorrectly, he will drop to $ 200. Say he gets all the $ 3,200; he will be standing with $ 3,400, still below the elimination point. The most he can bet is $ 1,900. If he answered incorrectly, he will go down to $3,900. If he sweeps the final three clues, he will be able to finish with exactly $7,100.

                $ 5,400 is a mistake, Clavin Daily Double, and he got punished.

Clue: The swan is a symbol of this Ontario city; each year, white & black swans are released into the Avon river
                Randy: What is Edminto? (I misheard this?)
                Alex: What is Strafford? You have to think Avon River, Shakespeare.

AFTER SECOND DAILY DOUBLE
Buzz Rate
0,48
0,36
0,24
Precision Rate
0,91
0,87
0,91
Dan
Randy
Victoria
Current score
$  14.400
$     200
$  7.600
Predicted remaining
$    1.195
$  1.010
$     943
Predicted Total
$  15.595
$  1.210
$  8.543
Probability Win
100,00%
0,00%
0,00%
Victoria's score is 54% of Dan's score. $3,200 left on the board

Double Jeopardy! Result:
Dan
Feitel
Randy
Pike
Victoria
Machado
$14,400
-     $2,600
$7,600


Final Jeopardy! REVIEW:
SPORTS RULE
That’s the category for today Final Jeopardy!
                Let’s analyze possible strategy.
Dan
Feitel
Victoria
Machado
$14,400
$7,600

                You can find Final Jeopardy strategy review at thefinalwager.co (i don't want to steal someone's works.) Anyway, here comes the final clue

BUSINESS & INDUSTRY
The Syracuse owner created this in 1954 & it may have helped his team succeed the Lakers as champs the next year

Dan
Feitel
Victoria
Machado
$14,400
$7,600
What is 24-second shot clock?
What is?
$14,399
$0
$27,799
$7,600

My opinion
                That’s just Dan. Keep making crazy bet. =D The jboard.tv folks seem to stars rooting against him (due to his bet), but you know what, it’s his money. I’m going to assume that we will meet Dan at Tournament of Champion. (Also, note to self: Don't let Excel change the cell to currency)

FINAL JEOPARDY! Clue of the article:
                I wrote this one. I think this is accurate. If this isn’t accurate, please shout using the comment.
BRITISH PALACE
Named after King Edward VII’s wife, its home for BBC first TV studio. Its nickname is Ally Pally (note the initial)




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