I’m bored: the methodology

So, I’m bored. You know what. Let’s make a blog that analyze Jeopardy game result as a whole. thefinalwager.co only analyzes Final Wager, I want the whole game from Jeopardy! to Final Jeopardy!.

I need to introduce some jargon then:

Once in a while, I’ll show you a prediction. I predict the probability the player wins the match. I take 2 parameters.

Successful Buzz In Rate: (In short, Buzz rate) From 61 questions, how many question you successfully buzz in. I’m going to assume that you try to buzz-in on all question, except Triple Stumper that you don’t buzz at.

Precision Rate: So you managed to buzz in, what is the chance that you’ll provide me the correct answer?

Using this parameter, I’ll use Monte Carlo to analyze the chance you’ll win the game.

This ‘predict meter’ has 2 functions:

1. ·         Gives you the probability that a certain player will win a game at certain point(obvious).
2. ·         We can use this ‘meter’ to analyze optimal Daily Double. You have $5,000 and what’s left on DJ! Board is 3 clues of $2,000. Given your buzz rate and precision rate, should you make it True Daily Double? If both your buzz rate and precision rate are high, maybe it’s good idea to make it True Daily Double. Even though you may miss it, but you can regain lead on the final 3 clue.

Unless competition game, I only take the last 3 game for the returning champion stats. (So if it’s Friday: I’m going to calculate the parameter taken from Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday’s Jeopardy round). Why?

·         Skills can change drastically. A player who wins Tuesday and Wednesday may still be fresh, but when they reach the Thursday and Friday’s episode, their skill can drop down. (For various reason: Fatigue, the episode is taped after lunch)

For competition game, I take the contestant last 5 games. Player’s skill can decay (or grow) over long period of time.

Also, unlike thefinalwager.co, I only pick (at least) 2 episodes from the weekly 5? Why? The reason is obvious:

1. ·         It’s time consuming.
2. ·         Not every episode is really exciting. Lock game, all the players in minus, conservative Daily Double! Duh.