Clavin's Rule:

Clavin's Rule

n. a wagering "rule of thumb" that suggests a player not put a lock game at risk with an excessive wager, however tempting the category.

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

Game Review: Tuesday, September 14, 2010 : Mandy Strine v Tony Fan v Roger Craig

Tuesday, September 14, 2010
                My birthday is on September 18, interesting.

                Anyway, we’re going to revisit the day when Roger Craig made the one-day $ 77,000 record. Dear, Roger Craig, will you pay off my tuition fee?

ENTER PLAYER INTRODUCTION!

  • ·         Mandy Strine, a DMV administrator for a used car retailer from Hendersonville, Tennessee
  • ·         Tony Fan, a law student from Marietta, Georgia
  • ·         Roger Craig, a graduate student of computer science from Newark, Delaware (whose 1-day cash winnings total $37,000)


                So Ken Jennings is a software developer and Roger Craig is a computer science student. I’m seeing a pattern here. I really want to be a computer science student, so I can break the record. (Ok, I joked about the ‘record’ part, but I’m being serious about the computer science student. I want to be a data scientist.)
Jeopardy! round review:
CALDECOTT MEDAL & HONOR BOOKS
ROCK ‘N OLD
EQUALS ONE
SORT THROUGH THE WORD PROBLEM
THE “A” LIST
KATIE COURIC, WITNESS TO HISTORY

                Yeah, I changed the format so it’s easier to read. Usually, I started off directly with Daily Double, but for this occasion, let’s start with the first clue:

                Roger    : Rock ‘N Old for $ 200.
                Clue       : Drumroll please! In July 2010 this Beatle turned 70
                Roger    : Who is McCartney?
                Alex       : No.
                Mandy  : Who is Ringo Starr?
                Alex       : No.
                Tony      : Who is George Harrison?
                Alex       : Yes!

                … I thought I was an idiot, until I saw Craig failed to recall who George Harrison is. But well, he was under the spotlight, and I heard that it is not easy to recall information under such stress, so yeah… maybe he’s just nervous, and I’m a genuine idiot.

                I can’t figure it out if Roger was “Forrest Bouncing” or his challenger was or how they picked the category is a product of chaos theory. They hopped on several categories, clean ‘Rock & old”, hopped again on other categories like a rabbit.

                Roger found the Daily Double on “CALDECOTT MEDAL & HONOR BOOKS” for $ 600.

Roger
Craig
Tony
Fan
 Mandy
Strine
$ 5,400
$ 1,800
- $ 600
                Hey! It turns out that using London Olympics’ font + Eggcrate makes the score board catchier.
                Anyway he wagered $ 4,000, aggressive, but not True Daily Double unfortunately.
Clue: A 2007 Caldecott Honor book was called "Moses: When" she "Led Her People to Freedom"
                Roger: Who is Harriet Tubman?
                That is correct and bumped his score to $ 9,400.
               
Jeopardy! Result:
Roger
Craig
Tony
Fan
 Mandy
Strine
$ 13,000
$ 4,200
$ 800
                It’s not every day you see somebody already above the lock point.

INTO DOUBLE JEOPARDY!
Buzz Rate
0,69
0,35
0,17
Precision Rate
0,91
0,9
0,6
Roger
Tony
Mandy
Jeopardy!
$ 13.000
$  4.200
$  800
Predicted DJ!
$ 15.868
$ 10.961
$ 6.861
Predicted Total
$ 28.868
$ 15.161
$ 7.661
Probability Win
93,38%
6,04%
0,57%
Tony proj. score is 52% of Roger's proj. score Probability doesn't sum to 100% up due to rounding

                Oh! Look at the stats! Roger Craig is really buzzing.

Double Jeopardy! Round review:
                RELEASE THE X-RAY FISH!
THEY’RE IN
HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER
LIVING IN NYC
SUIT UP!
IT’S GONNA “BE”
WAIT FOR IT
LEGENDARY

                Is it just me or today’s episode lacked of academic category?

                We started as our Mandy started with ‘LEGENDARY’. Roger picked the clue, he move to “SUIT UP!” then move to “LIVING IN NYC”.

                It seems that Roger Craig’s M.O when it comes to picking the category is like this:
1.       Pick the first clue.
2.       If he doesn’t like it, move on to next category. If he likes it, finish it.

                Roger Craig seems to like the category so he finished it up, (and he made the right decision! He swept the category!) He then continued his M.O, coming back to “LEGENDARY”, moved to ‘IT’S GONNA “BE’ and cleaned it up. He then picks “WAIT FOR IT” and found the first Daily Double at “WAIT FOR IT” for $ 1,200.

Roger
Craig
Tony
Fan
 Mandy
Strine
$ 25,800
$ 4,200
- $ 400

  
INTO FIRST DAILY DOUBLE
Buzz Rate
0,69
0,35
0,17
Precision Rate
0,91
0,9
0,6
Roger
Tony
Mandy
Current Score
$ 25.800
$ 4.200
$  -400
Predicted Remaining
$ 10.587
$ 5.708
$ 3.037
Predicted Total
$ 36.387
$ 9.908
$ 2.637
Probability Win
100,00%
0,00%
0,00%
Tony projected score is 27% of Roger's projected score

                We predicted that Tony final’s score will be $ 9,900. That’s $ 19,800 lock point and $ 16,000 cushion. Despite having $ 16,000 at his disposal, he wagered only $ 7,000.

Clue: In this play, a boy says that the title character "won't come this evening, but surely tomorrow"
                Roger: What is “Waiting for Godot”?

                Damn. Why I failed to recalled the answer! I mean, I played Estragon! Maybe because I played the Indonesian version of the play, so the phrase don’t ring a bell. Anyway he scored $ 7,000 which took him to $ 32,800.
AFTER FIRST DAILY DOUBLE
Buzz Rate
0,69
0,35
0,17
Precision Rate
0,91
0,9
0,6
Roger
Tony
Mandy
Current Score
$ 32.800
$ 4.200
- $400
Predicted Remaining
$ 10.587
$ 5.708
$ 3.037
Predicted Total
$ 43.387
$ 9.908
$ 2.637
Probability Win
100,00%
0,00%
0,00%
Tony projected score is 22% of Roger's projected score

                This is getting ridiculous, neither Tony nor Mandy put up a fight.  We moved down cleaning the high-value clue of “WAIT FOR IT”, and then we moved on to “LEGENDARY”, only to witness Roger discovered the last Daily Double at the $ 1,600 clue.

Roger
Craig
Tony
Fan
 Mandy
Strine
$ 33,600
$ 6,200
- $ 400

                He wagered $ 6,000.
Clue: He invented the lyre & gave it to Apollo; Apollo gave him the caduceus in return
                Roger    : Who is Hermes?
                Alex       : I don't want to frighten you, but if you made this a true Daily Double and responded correctly, you would have $67,200.
                Roger    : I'm not going to wager that much.
                Alex       : $67,200, I say!

                Let’s stop for a moment and think. Maybe Alex was right. He should have wagered more. Well, obviously not True Daily Double because that’s Clavin, but maybe like $ 20,000? Last Daily Double he had $ 16,000 cushion, so he should have more space to wiggle with at this point.

INTO SECOND DAILY DOUBLE
Buzz Rate
0,84
0,27
0,15
Precision Rate
0,91
0,91
0,42
Roger
Tony
Mandy
Current Score
$ 33.500
$ 6.200
- $400
Predicted Remaining
$ 6.478
$ 3.535
$ 1.800
Predicted Total
$ 39.978
$ 9.735
$ 1.400
Probability Win
100,00%
0,00%
0,00%
Tony projected score is 27% of Roger's projected score

                Tony projected score is $ 9,700 so lock point is at $ 19,400. That’s a $ 20,500 cushion for Roger Craig.
Double Jeopardy! Round result:
Roger
Craig
Tony
Fan
 Mandy
Strine
$ 47,000
$ 5,400
- $ 400

                All three players combined for a total of $ 52,000.  Nice.
Final Jeopardy! Round review:
LITERARY & MOVIE TITLE OBJECTS
                Another pop-culture!
LITERARY & MOVIE TITLE OBJECTS
The inspiration for this title object in a novel & a 1957 movie actually spanned the Mae Khlung River

Roger
Craig
Tony
Fan
$47,000
$5,400
What is the Bridge on the River Kwai?
What is the Bridge over the River Kwai?
$30,000
$4,600
$77,700
$10,000

My opinion
THIS!
Preceded by
$75,000
Biggest one-day winners on Jeopardy!
$77,000
2010
Succeeded by
Incumbent

                I for one don’t know for how long will this record last, because $ 77,000 is a huge chunk of money. However, if somebody turns out to break this record, mark my word:

                It’s going to be someone who has background at computer science.

                And about the score display, I’m going to revert back to the normal one. It seems good on Word, but not good on Blogger.

FINAL JEOPARDY! Clue of the article:
I don’t know how I forgot this section on last game review.
21ST CENTURY GAMES
The villains in this game were inspired by the swine flu epidemic scare




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